Win Rate in Trading: How to Calculate It, the Win Rate You Need, and How Many Trades Prove It
How to Calculate Win Rate
- Count all closed trades in a period, for example 120.
- Count the winners, for example 66.
- Win rate = 66 ÷ 120 × 100 = 55%.
In Excel or Google Sheets: put “W” or “L” in column B for each trade, then use =COUNTIF(B:B,"W")/COUNTA(B:B) and format the cell as a percentage.
The Win Rate You Need: Break-Even
Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). For fixed-payout options this is simply stake ÷ payout.
| Deriv contract ($10, 20 Oct 2026) | Payout | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Differs / Over 0 | $10.96 | 91.2% |
| Over 2 | $14.04 | 71.2% |
| Rise/Fall, Even/Odd | $19.53–19.54 | 51.2% |
| Over 6 | $32.05 | 31.2% |
| Matches | $89.29 | 11.2% |
Expectancy: Win Rate Plus Size
Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Example with multipliers: 40% wins of $30 and 60% losses of $15 gives 0.4 × 30 − 0.6 × 15 = +$3 per trade, even though you lose most trades. A 70% win rate with $5 wins and $20 losses gives 0.7 × 5 − 0.3 × 20 = −$2.50.
How Many Trades Before You Trust It?
| Trades | Range luck alone can produce around a true 50% (≈95%) |
|---|---|
| 30 | 32% – 68% |
| 100 | 40% – 60% |
| 400 | 45% – 55% |
| 1,000 | 47% – 53% |
Calculation: 50% ± 2 × √(0.25 ÷ trades). That is why our tick-trading test result of 52.9% on 382 trades proves nothing.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate win rate in trading?
Divide winning trades by total trades and multiply by 100.
What is a good win rate in trading?
Any win rate above your break-even rate, which depends on how much you win versus lose.
How do I calculate win rate in Excel?
Mark trades W or L and use =COUNTIF(B:B,"W")/COUNTA(B:B).
What win rate do I need on Deriv Rise/Fall?
More than 51.2% at a $19.54 payout per $10.
Is a 90% win rate good?
Only if the losses are small. On Differs you need 91.2% just to break even.
How many trades do I need to measure win rate?
At least a few hundred; 1,000 trades narrows luck to about ±3 points.
Related Guides
NEWDeriv Payout Explained: What Each Contract Pays, the Break-Even Win Rate and the Built-In Edge
Risk Management for Deriv Traders: Stake Size, Stop-Loss and Daily Limits That Protect Your Account
Max Drawdown in Trading: What It Means, How to Calculate It and What Is AcceptableH-BOT Backtester and Trading Journal: How to Use Them and Read Win Rate, Expectancy and Drawdown