Deriv Payout Explained: What Each Contract Pays, the Break-Even Win Rate and the Built-In Edge
Real Payouts for a $10 Stake
| Contract (1 tick unless stated, V100) | Payout | Profit if win | Break-even win rate | True chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise or Fall (5 ticks) | $19.54 | $9.54 | 51.2% | about 50% |
| Even or Odd | $19.53 | $9.53 | 51.2% | 50% |
| Over 0 / Under 9 / Differs | $10.96 | $0.96 | 91.2% | 90% |
| Over 2 | $14.04 | $4.04 | 71.2% | 70% |
| Over 4 / Under 5 | $19.53 | $9.53 | 51.2% | 50% |
| Over 6 | $32.05 | $22.05 | 31.2% | 30% |
| Over 8 / Under 1 / Matches | $89.29 | $79.29 | 11.2% | 10% |
| Touch (5 ticks, +0.5 barrier) | $62.64 | $52.64 | 16.0% | not fixed |
| No Touch (same barrier) | $11.06 | $1.06 | 90.4% | not fixed |
How to Work Out the Break-Even Win Rate
Break-even win rate = stake ÷ payout. For Rise/Fall: 10 ÷ 19.54 = 51.2%. If your real win rate over many trades is lower, you lose money, no matter how you size your stakes.
What This Means in Practice
- On the digit contracts the average loss is about 1.4%–10.7% of each stake (Differs lowest, Matches highest) if digits are random, which they are (see {L("deriv-even-odd-strategy-and-digit-analysis-tool", "digit analysis")}).
- High-payout contracts lose more per trade on average and come with long losing streaks.
- A bot or signal only helps if it really raises your win rate above the break-even line. Measure it on at least a few hundred demo trades.
- The maximum payout is set by Deriv per contract and account; the trade screen will not let you buy beyond it.
See also how to calculate your win rate and every contract type in Deriv Trader.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much does Deriv pay on Rise/Fall?
On 20 October 2026, $19.54 for a $10 stake on a 5-tick Rise on Volatility 100.
What is the payout for Matches on Deriv?
$89.29 for $10 on a 1-tick Matches, so you need to win 11.2% of trades to break even.
What is the Deriv payout percentage?
For Rise/Fall about 95% profit on the stake; for Differs about 9.6%.
Why does Deriv pay less than double on Even/Odd?
Because Deriv keeps a small edge: $19.53 instead of $20.
How do I calculate break-even win rate?
Divide the stake by the payout. $10 ÷ $19.53 = 51.2%.
Do payouts change?
Yes. They depend on the market, duration and barrier; Deriv shows the exact figure before you buy.
Related Guides
NEWWin Rate in Trading: How to Calculate It, the Win Rate You Need, and How Many Trades Prove It
Deriv Trader (DTrader) Guide: How to Log In, Choose a Contract and Place Your First Trade
Deriv Over and Under Strategy: How the Contract Works and How to Trade It CarefullyDeriv Matches and Differs: How They Work, the Real Odds and Safer Settings