Deriv Only Ups, Only Downs and High/Low Ticks: How They Pay and the Real Odds
Only Ups and Only Downs
With Only Ups and 3 ticks, all three ticks after the entry must each be higher than the one before. One flat or lower tick ends the contract as a loss. Deriv quoted these payouts for a $10 stake on V100:
| Ticks in a row | Payout for $10 | Needed win rate | Real win rate | Average return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | $38.17 | 26.2% | 24.7% | −5.8% |
| 3 | $76.34 | 13.1% | 12.1% | −7.8% |
| 4 | $152.67 | 6.6% | 6.2% | −5.3% |
| 5 | $305.34 | 3.3% | 3.1% | −6.5% |
Each extra tick halves the chance (about 1 in 4, 1 in 8, 1 in 16, 1 in 32), and the payout roughly doubles, minus Deriv’s margin. A big payout is the price of a small chance, not an opportunity.
High Tick and Low Tick
| Tick you pick | Payout for $10 | Real share highest | Average return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | $35.09 | 25.8% | −9.6% |
| 2nd | $59.52 | 15.0% | −10.5% |
| 3rd | $65.36 | 13.5% | −12.0% |
| 4th | $59.52 | 15.3% | −9.0% |
| 5th | $35.09 | 26.7% | −6.3% |
In a random walk the first and last ticks are more likely to be the extreme, so Deriv pays less for them. The pricing already includes this pattern; there is no "secret best tick".
How to Use These Contracts Sensibly
- Treat them as entertainment-size stakes, not a strategy.
- Never use martingale on 1-in-32 contracts: losing streaks of 50+ are normal (see {L("martingale-strategy-deriv", "martingale")}).
- Set a daily loss limit before you start.
- Test on demo and write down your own results.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Only Ups on Deriv?
A contract that wins if every tick rises for 2 to 5 ticks in a row after entry.
What is High Tick on Deriv?
A contract that wins if the tick you choose is the highest of the next five ticks.
Which tick is most often the highest?
The first and last ticks, about 26% each on real V100 data, which is why they pay less.
Can Only Ups be profitable?
In our test the win rate was always slightly below what the payout needs, so it lost on average.
Is a bigger payout better?
No. The payout grows because the chance shrinks.
Can bots trade these contracts?
Yes, Deriv Bot supports them, but automation does not change the odds.
